Javier, writing on Judith Curry’s blog, which has a lot of climate scientist interest as she is one of them, is saying alarmist models are trying desperately to negate the role of the Hunga Tonga submarine volcano for the recent warm weather. Actually, the warmth was largely absent from the UK as we did not have a very good summer. Okay for the runner beans – but not for much else. This is an interesting debate as the Hunga Tonga submarine volcano did not warm the planet straight away – which gives mainstream climate science a route of denial. I found it surprising there was such a long gap between the hoisting of so much water into the upper atmosphere and the actual warming coming through – coinciding with a small El Nino warming event in 2023. Almost a year elapsed between the two events. Does that really negate a connection.
Over at https://judithcurry.com/2024/03/24/the-extraordinary-climate-events-of-2022-24/ … you can read both sides of the issue. Javier points out the denial that the volcano had any effect on the climate in 2023 is a route they had to take as their models did not take such a thing into consideration. The volcano may even suggest their models are a load of cobblers.
The issue also pops up at https://dailysceptic.org/2024/03/26/hunga-tonga-volcano-cause-of-recent-high-temperatures-says-scientist/ … but here most of the commenters are sceptics so not much of a defence by mainstream climate scientists. The volcano erupted in January of 2022 – seems like it was just yesterday but apparently this is correct. It hoisted water into the upper atmosphere in a huge plume that then went on to circle the globe. It increased water vapour into the upper atmosphere by 10 per cent. It should have had an effect on the climate – but the media have kept a low profile since 2022. They are following mainstream like a sock to an ankle. The problem for the alarmists is that a volcano is a natural event. It is unwanted as it spoils their mantra. It is in their interest to either ignore it or claim it had no effect. That is all you need to know.
In the UK the second half of 2023 and the first few months of 2024 have been extraordinarily wet. Where did all that rain come from? Was it the water that went up coming down?
Javier goes on to say that as water leaves the upper atmosphere it will induce a cooling effect at the surface, affecting temperatures over the next few years. One could easily say it has already started happening as cooler weather is being experienced in China, some parts of North America, and now in Australasia. In the UK we have had a succession of Atlantic lows that are more commonly associated with cooler weather episodes [according to HH Lamb]. Javier is not everyone’s cup of tea as he has been proved wrong in the past – but consistently bounces back. We shall have to wait and see if the cooling continues over the next 3 to 5 years.