At http://phys.org/print332409057.html … a computer simulation has been used to try and explain why glaciers in the Karakorum are not melting – the paper can be viewed at Nature Geoscience (Oct 2014). However, it begins with a casual throw away line, 'as most everyone knows by now, the planet is warming, and because of that glaciers across the globe are melting '''… which is a complete untruth. The planet is not warming as temperatures have flat-lined since the early 2000s and if everybody knows the CAGW advocates line by now that is only due to the amount of hype and propaganda that have flooded the airwaves (and cyberspace) and the printed page for the last 30 years. That has nothing to do with 'knowing' as Joe Public hasn't got the time to know such a thing, as climate is a periphery concern. He or she is more worried about their employment, their kids, the cost of living, and hobbies and private interests separate from the climate issue. To know something is to understand something and not even the average academic seems to have much of a clue about climate science and how it all works – you only have to listen to some of them in the media. They are in the dark as much as the bus driver or the lady on the till in the local shop. You have to explore the subject to get a handle on what is happening and what is being said is happening – and simply defining warming by modelling a suite of factors that are assumed to affect climate is just waffle, like a politico claiming he is going to do something on the cusp of an election when you know full well he will do nothing of the sort if elected.
However, by including that line the authors actually set their standard, which is a preconceived notion on what should be happening rather than what is happening – as they begin by assuming that not only is global warming occurring but assume it will continue to get warmer as the century progresses. That is projection. It is an unprovable assumption as nobody knows what the weather will be like in 20 years time – yet alone at the end of the century. We are supposed to be living in an information boom – with reams of information at our fingertips. That might be so but the quality of the information is sometimes suspect. We are supposed to have wall to wall 24 hours news but all we get is the same couple of sentences repeated ad nauseum throughout the day – 24 hours of repetition. When it comes to global warming the same mantra is regurgitated over and over again until the average Joe Public switches off and loses interest – which is why CAGW is now way down the list of concerns. The people with money invested in Renewables might not like this and therefore this kind of research is still being subsidised – and published (even when most people know that most glaciers are not now receding but are instead, displaying evidence of growth). When it comes to the Karakorum the glaciers there have never shown any evidence of shrinking – possibly because the mountains are in the shadow of the Himalayas, or are affected by weather patterns different to those of the Himalayas (and this is basically what the research has shown, when you sift out the wheat from the chaff).
There is no logical reason why glaciers should not shrink and grow – all the time. It's in the nature of the beast. Okay, the glacier on Kilimanjaro in tropical Kenya did in fact decline – but this was due to lack of snow (and substituted by rain). It is now growing again – which is why it is ignored by the CAGW lobby. One can say likewise there is no reason why Arctic sea ice might shrink and grow year by year, and in longer cycles. It was in decline in the 1930s and on various occasions during the 19th and 18th centuries (naval records) and therefore the recent decline is not unusual in any way whatsoever. It is simply a useful piece of propaganda by the Greens. In 2013 the sea ice was at a low but this year it has bounced back up. In the first instance the CAGW lobby loudly broadcast the decline – but they conveniently ignore the rebound this year. In the Antarctic sea ice has continued to grow unremittingly all the way through the global warming hysteria, and the continental ice sheet has remained fairly stable with no trace of melt. What the Green lobby do is ignore the big ice sheet and waffle on about the bit that juts out, the West Antarctic Peninsular. This is underlain by volcanoes and undercut by channels. The peninsular is not a complete land mass but is virtually an island separated from the mainland (but the sea in between is covered in ice). The peninsular is also sticking out in the face of ocean currents that are enroute to the South Atlantic and the narrow funnel of the straits leading into the southern Pacific. These ocean currents are bringing warm tropical water from the equatorial Pacific, some of which ends up in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. There is no reason why West Antarctic glaciers would not calve and shrink, and then grow back only to calve once again. It is only part of the hysteria because the idea of calving glaciers can be used for hysterical propaganda. Logic says it is all a fuss about nothing in particular. The hysterics must be catching however as the politicos are hooked on the hype and display no sign of wishing to be weaned off the medicine. This week a recently sacked minister has changed his mind – after finding the time, it seems, to do a little bit of research into the Green Blob that got him the sack in the first place. He was the man who overturned the Green dream of returning the Somerset Levels to a watery grave and his opponents had their revenge, it could be said, by having him removed. It hasn't done them a lot of good however as he has gone on to publicly claim Green policies on energy are the equivalent of King John and the Sheriff of Nottingham overtaxing the peasants of the day, creating the conditions of reducing them to near starvation levels. This is the sort of thing to prick up the ears of Joe Public – and we can expect this will be a subject that will return to haunt the politicos in the elections of next year.
None of that has anything to do with the Nature Geoscience paper – but then again it does as it underlines the kind of hype that is embedded in the research, seeking to explain something that openly contradicts the Green mantra. This is inferred when we read they used data all the way to 2100AD. In other words, they have included 86 years of tea leaf readings. The real research findings are that they found the Karakorum experienced high snow levels in the winter in comparison with the Himalayas where the weather relies on the monsoon rains that arrive in the summer months. Two completely different climate regimes. However, the modelling is said to show that as the planet warms up (the assumption) the Karakorum snow levels will be affected, gradually. By 2100 the Karakorum will reach a point of no return and the glaciers will disappear. It is entirely projection – all tea leaf readings and no substance. Don't laugh – they might hear you.